During last week the currency pair mostly remained in volatile sideways and the attempt of recovery failed strongly at 0.9178. The fall after that took USDCHF to as low as 0.9067 or a bit lower than the previous low of March 9th. The currency pair closed for the week at 0.9080.
Please note that USDCHF has been continuously moving within the daily Ichimoku cloud since March 14th. It has been continuously finding resistance by the upper edge and support by the lower edge of the cloud since then. Any move below the current price will break the support of the lower edge of the cloud. Also please note that any recent attempt to break over 55-day EMA resistance has been failing.
Considering the above, for the next week our focus will be for some more downward moves if a break below 0.9070/0.9060 takes place. Such a move should take the currency pair first towards the psychological support of 0.9000 and below that towards 0.8930 or the low of February 24th.
In case support comes over 0.9060 and a break over first the recent 0.9178 and then 0.9217 takes place then our above mentioned outlook will change for further upward gains towards the previous high of 0.9335 and above that towards 0.9415/0.9420.
Other sources:
1) USD/CHF forecast & outlook.
2) USD/CHF daily analysis.
3) USD/JPY forecast.
AUDUSD went as low as 1.0336 or a little below Fibonacci 50% retracement of the upward move during December 26th to March 1st before recovering to 1.0482 and closing for the week at 1.0468.
For the next week if AUDUSD breaks over 1.0490/1.0500 then we would expect some more upward correction towards the range of 1.0540/1.0560. There is We would expect a resistance in this zone which would represent 22-day and 55-day EMA resistance as well as Kijun-sen resistance (1.0540) of daily Ichimoku cloud. Even if this resistance is broken, we would expect strong resistance near 1.0600.We would expect further downward move from there. On the downside a break of 1.0336 should target 1.0220 or little below the 61.8% retracement of the above mentioned upward move during December 26th to March 1st.
However, if AUDUSD breaks above 1.0636 then our above mentioned outlook will start changing towards a focus of upward moves and the confirmation of this will come with a break over 1.0670/1.0680.
Other sources:
1) AUD/USD forecast & outlook.
2) AUD/USD daily analysis.
3) euro-dollar forecast & outlook.
GBPUSD remained is a volatile sideways mode between 1.5923 and 1.5768. The downward move of Thursday found support almost at 55-day EMA level and on Friday the support came from 22-day EAM level and the currency pair closed for the week at 1.5869.
For the next week we stay neutral. Some upward moves may take place to retest 1.5923 and GBP/USD breaks above 1.5923 then we would expect some upward move towards 1.5960 to 1.5990 resistance zone. Please note that since January 30th, GBP/JPY has been having a volatile sideways move between 1.5500 and 1.6000. Both these levels are psychological support and resistance levels and we can expect further volatile moves between these. A directional move should take place only with a decisive break of either of these levels but we favor the downward side. On the upside any decisive break over 1.6000 should take GBPUSD towards 1.6165.
On the downside a break of the low of the last week i.e. 1.5768, which will represent the break of 55-day EMA support as well as the break of the lower edge of the daily Ichimoku cloud, should bring further downward move towards the range of 1.5650 to 1.5620. But overall, as mentioned above, we need to wait for a break of either of the psychological levels to expect any real directional move and trend.
Other Sources:
1) GBP/USD outlook.
2) GBP/USD daily analysis.
3) Euro-US Dollar outlook.
GBPJPY went as high as 133.49 but found strong resistance and fell sharply. The currency pair then went as low as 130.01 before closing for the week at 130.68.
On one hand such a strong fall would make us expect some more downward move but on the other hand the current price level is quite sensitive to support for GBP/JPY. We need to consider the flowing points while analyzing the probable moves in the coming days:
1) 130.00 is now a psychological support and the support came just near 130.00. A decisive break of this is required to expect any further downward moves.
2) For two consecutive days GBP/JPY tried to break the support of 22-day EMA but immediately found support. A decisive break of this is required to expect any further downward moves.
3) This support for past 2 trading days was also at the level of Kijun-sen support of daily Ichimoku cloud.
Considering the above we see that there are three strong support levels working at the current price level. A decisive break of these is required to have our focus for further downward movement.
If firm break of 130.00 takes place then on the downside we will expect frequent support in 129.00 ranges. Any strong break of 129.20 may take GBPJPY towards 128.20 and then possibly towards 127.20. 127.20/127.25 will represent 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the upward move during January 14th to march 22nd. It is also slightly below 55-day EMA support and above the strong support level of March 7th i.e. 126.54.
Please note that we are taking the current downward move just as a consolidation/correction and our overall outlook stays bullish and we expect another upward move either if 130.00 support is not broken or from one of the support levels mentioned above.
On the upside a break of the recent high of 133.49 should take GBP/JPY towards the psychological resistance of 135.00. A break of that is very important to expect further upward move first towards 136.20 and then 137.00.
Other Sources:
1) GBP/JPY forecast/analysis.
2) GBP/JPY daily analysis.
3) EUR/JPY forecast
EURJPY pair moved as high as 111.43 and found strong resistance there. 2 weeks back we had mentioned a resistance in 111.20 to 111.60 range. The currency pair, then, moved as low as 108.48 and found some support there. Please note that the support was slightly below the 22-day EMA as well as at Kijun-sen level of daily Ichimoku cloud and this support needs to be broken to expect further downward consolidation/correction.
For this week we are in favor of some more downward consolidation but for that a decisive break below 108.48/108.40 is required, as mentioned above. Such a break should bring further downward move first towards 107.50 and then possibly towards 106.50/106.65. This would represent the supports of 55-day EMA as well as the upper edge of daily Ichimoku cloud. Even if EUR/JPY breaks below this resistance zone, we would expect very strong support near 105.63 (March 7th).
Please note that we will be taking any downward moves as consolidation and not as bearish trend till any strong break below the psychological 105.00 level takes place.
On the upside a break over first the recent 111.43 and then 111.62 (end of October 2011 resistance) is required for further upward moves towards 114.20 or more.
Please note that EUR/JPY has started showing the early signs of trend reversal for upside but a better indication of the same will only come with a decisive break over 111.60 and then 112.00 and when 110.00 becomes a support level instead of resistance.
Sources:
1) EUR/JPY weekly Forecast.
2) EUR/JPY daily analysis.
3) Forex technical analysis from Forex trading website ForexAbode.
After such a strong upward move since February 2nd, a correction is very natural. This was also expected because of the approaching psychological resistance of 85.00. The facts that USD/JPY has broken below the support of 22-day EMA and also the support of Kijun-sen of daily Ichimoku cloud first time since February 10th, turns the focus for some more downward correction. With a decisive break below 81.90 we would expect further downward move towards the range of 81.05/81.30. Please note that the upcoming supports are as follows:
1) Near 81.30: Upper edge of daily Ichimoku cloud.
2) Near 81.05: Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the upward move during February 2nd to March 15th.
3) Near 80.90: 55-day EMA.
4) Support because of approaching psychological level of 80:00.
Please note that we are taking the recent downward move and also the expected further downward move as a consolidation/correction and not as a bearish trend. We would still favor another upward move after this correction. Even if the pair breaks the above mentioned supports, we would expect a very strong support near 81.58 (March 7th and 8th).
In case USD/JPY fails to break below 81.90 and if a break over 83.00/83.20 resistance zone takes place then our focus will again change towards a retest of 84.18 and then 84.60 before a move towards the psychological level of 85.00 takes place.
Sources:
1) USD/JPY weekly forecast.
2) USD/JPY daily analysis.
3) Forex forecast for currency majors from Forex site ForexAbode.
For the next week the most important point to watch for is a break above the resistance level of 1.3293 and then 1.3300. Any decisive break of these resistances should bring further upward move toward first 1.3355 and then towards the range of 1.3470/1.3485. The mentioned resistance represents the resistance since March 9th and also the upper edge resistance of daily Ichimoku cloud.
On the other side a failure of this resistance should take EUR/USD to retest the recent 1.3134 and any decisive break below will turn our focus for deeper moves towards the psychological support of 1.3000.
The outlook this week is very short as the focus is closely for the break of the above mentioned resistance. Please note that even such upward move will not make our overall outlook bullish for the currency pair and we will take it just as a consolidation. EUR/USD is between two strong psychological level of 1.3000 and 1.3500 and may have some volatile moves without showing a real trend till a decisive break of either side takes place.
Source:
1) EUR/USD weekly forecast.
2) EUR/USD daily analysis.
From your Forex trading site ForexAbode.
AUDJPY continued it’s strong upward move and went as high as 88.00 before closing for the week at 87.80.
While what we mentioned about the resistance zone for AUDJPY is true but the strong closing without much of immediate consolidation from this resistance zone indicate that we can expect further upward gains towards 89.20 during the coming days. Above 89.20 the resistance should be around 89.60. Near 89.20 the psychological resistance of approaching 90.00 should start coming into the picture and 89.20 to 89.60 ranges should come as a resistance zone from where some downward consolidation may take place.
The above should stand good as long as no immediate break below the recent support near 85.60 take place. Any break of 85.60 should bring some support just blow it near 85.40 or the Kijun line of daily Ichimoku cloud but a break below that will make the short-term outlook neutral. This will represent a decisive break of 22-day EMA as well as the above mentioned Kijun line and will turn the focus for a correction towards 84.20 supports.
Further Readings:
1) Detailed forecast of AUD/JPY considering recent economic releases and technical analyis.
2) Daily technical analysis of AUD/JPY.
3) Check for on your Forex website (ForexAbode.com)
USDCHF broke out of the range after failing to break below the support at 89.30. 89.30 was a little below the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the upward move during October 27th, 2011 to January 8th, 2012. During the last week the pair went up to 91.49 before closing for the week at 0.9141, which was little below the 55-day EMA resistance i.e. 0.9168.
On the upside if USD/CHF breaks above the 0.9168 (55-day EMA) and then 0.9205 minor resistance then for the next week we would expect some more upward gains after a possible sideways move. Such a move should again bring resistance in the range of 0.9260 to 0.9300. A break above 0.9300 and then the resistance of the upper edge of the daily Ichimoku cloud i.e. 0.9350 will indicate that the recent downward consolidation is over and we can expect upward gains first towards 0.9400 and possibly more.
On the downside we would expect support over 0.9020 and in case there is a strong break of that support then our short-term focus will again turn towards downside for a retest of the recent 0.8930.
Further Readings:
1) Detailed forecast of USD/CHF considering recent economic releases and technical analysis.
2) Daily technical analysis of USD/CHF.
AUDUSD tried to break above the range by moving to 1.0856 but fell again in the range it has been trading since February 8th.
The fall on Friday did found support slightly above the 22-day EMA and did not break it. This level is also the Kijun line support of daily Ichimoku cloud.
Overall we need a break of this long sideways move to have a directional move on either side but our focus stays for an upward break. This will remain true as long as AUDUSD does not break below 1.0597 which was the recent low on February 22nd. Such a break will also represent a decisive break below 55-day EMA. Even though such a move will only be 38.2% retracement of the upward move during January 8th to February 29th but may cause further consolidation towards 1.0490 for the pair.
As mentioned we expect further upward gains, with a break of the recent 1.0856 and then some resistance near 1.0900, we would expect AUD/USD to move that towards 1.1000 resistance and with a break over 1.1000, further towards 1.1079 high.
Further Readings:
1) Detailed forecast of AUD/USD considering recent economic releases and technical analyis.
2) Daily technical analysis of AUD/USD.
3) Daily update of Forex pivot points resistance and support levels.