The rebound of GBP offers a new opportunity to sell

GBP / USD returned to last week’s low to 1.2640 (trough to 1.2634). I believe that 1.2634 should hold a few more days, but a fall below is likely.
Any new weakness should find a solid support towards the 1.2560, before 1.2515.
In other words, GBP / USD becomes bearish with an immediate target at 1.2560, then 1.2515.
In view of oversold conditions in the short term, new sellers should expect better levels towards 1.2735 / 40 with stops above 1.2820.
I’m short at 1.2723

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The Euro could fall further on the Forex in the short term

EUR / USD remains somewhat low, but still trapped in the range 1.1200 / 1.1230. Even though some believe the ECB is headed for a QE exit, I believe it’s too early to play that, as inflation has yet to rise.
I believe that EUR USD will still fall in the short term. The next supports are at 1.1170 and 1.1060. The resistance is at 1.1280.
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GBP failed to hit new lows

GBP / USD pair failed to score new lows below those on Thursday night.
Indeed the results of the legislative elections in the United Kingdom weighed heavily on Forex , sending GBP / USD to a low point at 1.2634 at the night after the vote.
Thereafter, a first rebound failed on the resistance of 1.2770, returning the pair to the last troughs.
Today we are seeing a new rebound since the 1.2640 zone, which could offer another test of 1.2770 as resistance.
A break above would open the way towards the 1.2850 at first, before the 1.2900, 1.2950 and 1.2985.
On the downside, the first supports are at 1.2700, 1.2670 and 1.2640 / 34, which will have to break to resume the decline.
GBP / USD is currently trading at 1.2731.
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EURUSD: The point on the thresholds to be monitored in the short term

The trend remains uncertain for  EUR / USD pair, which hesitates in anticipation of the ECB meeting tomorrow.
Yesterday the pair had tried to go under 1.1250 with a lowest at 1.1239, but was then quickly rising above this support to the peak of last week at 1.1284.
However, traders did not dare to take on the psychological threshold of 1.13, so EUR / USD pair corrected slightly overnight, returning to 1.1260.
Today, hesitation could be maintained, with a fairly light economic calendar which will include orders to German industry at 8am, and then a new estimate of the GDP T1 of the Euro Zone at 11am. In the United States, the program will remain empty .
From a graphic point of view, we therefore have a clear resistance zone at 1.1280-1.13, and a support on 1.1250, before 1.1230, and the psychological threshold of 1.12-1.1210. The courses are still above the trned line on 4h tf, currently located at 1.1260, and which can also be considered as a support.
Currently,  EUR / USD is trading around 1.1260.
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EURUSD:The pair fell back to 1.1250

EUR / USD fell again to 1.1250 after the rebound this night.
Indeed, after finding support in the zone of 1.1235 yesterday, EUR / USD gradually rose to 1.1270 overnight.
However, this morning we quickly fell back to 1.1250 without any particular news. We are therefore probably entering a phase of consolidation waiting the meeting of the ECB on Thursday.
Regarding today’s publications, we will follow the eurozone retail sales and the JOLTS US report, two publications that are not expected to impact much on Forex today.
Regarding the technical thresholds, EUR / USD remains blocked below 1.1280, which will have to be broken to continue the rise towards 1.1300, 1.1330 and 1.1350.
On the downside, it will be necessary to carry the zone of 1.1230 to return towards the 1.1200 and possibly 1.1170 / 60.
EUR / USD pair is currently trading at 1,1249.
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How GBP will react to the next elections?

GBP could fall back on Forex before the June 8 legislative election, before bouncing back after the results.
The UK election will be the main driver of GBP at the moment, while the UK services PMI will be the only major publication before June 8th.
The Conservative party should keep its majority, which should support GBP USD towards 1.32 by the end of the year (anticipating a slightly lower USD).
But by next Thursday, GBPUSD may fall as traders would reduce risk before the event  as Labour narrows the gap  to 3 points according to the latest polls by YouGov.
If the Labor Party wins more seats than the Conservative Party, GBPUSD could fall to 1.22 by the end of the year.
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EURUSD: Consolidation in the range 1.0710-1.0770 persists

EUR / USD spent the day in range 1.0710-1.0770 , in a poor day in news.
The wait-and-see attitude finally prevailed on EUR / USD today, while the range mentioned, in place since the beginning of the week persists.
The approach of important resistance thresholds, notably at 1.0800 / 25, the absence of news, and the threat Trump could make a new shock at any time in these delicate first days of its administration, push traders to caution short term.
Indeed, we have already made good progress recently and it may be too late to buy on these levels, at the same time there is no suggestion of an imminent turnaround either in technical analysis or in terms of Fundamental analysis.
We therefore continue to monitor the range 1.0710-1.0770, as well as any news that might come to bring a bit of dynamism to the pair.
The supports are at 1.0710 / 00, 1.0680, 1.0660, 1.0620 and 1.0600. The resistances are at 1.0750, 1.0770, 1.0800 and 1.0825.
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EUR/USD remains resilient above 1.07 with an empty economic calendar

EUR / USD moved above 1.07, showing a bullish overall profile in the short term.
Indeed, it broke the resistance 1.0710 after the weekly open markets, paving the way for a test of the next threshold at 1.0750.
After reaching this threshold, EUR / USD has retreated somewhat, but remains close to the recent peak. Indeed, we are not even back to test the 1.0710 as support, which could follow in the next few hours if the bullish move does not resume quickly, which could be difficult with the empty economic calendar this afternoon.
Above 1.0750, we will have noticeable resistance in the levels of 1.0800-1.0820, which should slow down the upward movement at first.
A downwards, the supports are at 1.0710 / 00, 1.0680, 1.0660 and 1.0620 / 00.
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EURUSD for August, 8 week: The schedule gets lighter, but some statistics may still influence the pair

After several lively weeks, forex economic calendar of this week will be less busy, but still remains the opportunity of some leading statistics with a potential influence on EURUSD pair.

Here are the most important events expected in the US and Europe this week:

American statistics:

In US, the most important Statistics is retail sales in July, expected Friday at 13:30 (gmt+1). The consensus expects 0.4% after 0.6% the previous month. With regard to major retail sales (excluding food and energy), the consensus expects 0.2% after 0.7% the previous month.

Simultaneously (Friday 13.30), traders will also monitor US producer prices in July, anticipated + 0.1% after + 0.5% the previous month.

Also on Friday, it will also give some importance to the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan in August, which is forecast to grow to 91.5 after 90 the previous month.

European statistics:
In Europe, it is also Friday which will be the busiest day, especially with the preliminary GDP Q2. For Germany, the quarterly GDP is expected  + 0.3% after + 0.7% previously (+ 1.5% against + 1.3% previously annual data).
For the entire euro zone, the quarterly GDP is expected + 0.3% after + 0.6% previous (1.6% against 1.7% previously annual data).
German statistics will also be monitored this week, with industrial production Monday morning, and CPI on Friday morning. German industrial production in June is expected to rise to 0.7% after -1.3% previously, and the CPI in July is expected unchanged

EURUSD Fundamental Analysis

Almost all potentially influential statistics for EURUSD this week are expected on friday, which could result in a week some hesitation. Regarding forecasts on expected statistics, nothing particularly stands out. Note however that the most important statistic of the week, US sales details, is expected slowdown, which could dent investor optimism about the US economic outlook.

EURUSD will surelly keep moving inside its range ( 1.10-1.12) for another week! Good luck everyone

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Will NFP help to give us a clear short-term trend?

EURUSD failed to sustain Tuesday’s rebound above 1.12, and now falls below 1.1150, where it consolidates from yesterday.
Thus, the short term bullish bias becomes more neutral waiting the key publication of this month.
Indeed, we now await the publication of NFP, which should have a significant impact on Forex and particularly on USD.
In the US employment report today, it will especially keep an eye on revenues, which constitute an important factor in estimating the state of the labor market and inflation .
Graphically, EURUSD therefore returns to its former consolidation range at 1.10-1.12, and could remain there unless if the NFP is very lower than expected, it can create a strong bullish gap above 1.1200.
Conversely, if the NFP is better than expected, the pair will continue to fall towards the bottom of the range, but we should not observe the break below 1.10 today, which is still possible in short term.
The resistances are at 1.1150, 1.1200, 1.1230 and 1.1250. Supports are at 1.1100, 1.1060, 1.1020 and 1.1000.
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