EURJPY: Analysis

EUR/JPY–to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting four-year high 139.25 this morning. Underpinned by weak yen sentiment; improved euro sentiment on higher-than-expected German inflation data; demand from Japan importers. But EUR/JPY gains tempered by Japan exporter sales; positions adjustment before weekend. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought, five-day moving average above 15-day MA and advancing.

Resistance at psychological 140.00; breach would expose upside to 141.00 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 169.97-94.12 July 23, 2008-July 24, 2012 decline), then psychological round-numbered levels of 142.00 and 143.00.

Support at 138.33 (Thursday’s low); breach would temper positive near-term view, exposing downside to 137.31 (Wednesday’s low), then 137.15 (Tuesday’s low), 137.04 (Monday’s low), 136.02 (Nov. 22 low) and 134.12 (Nov. 20 low).

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USDCAD: Analysis

USD/CAD–to consolidate as markets await 1330 GMT Canada 3Q GDP (forecast +2.4%) and September monthly GDP (forecast +0.2%). Loonie sentiment hurt after wider-than-expected Canada 3Q current account deficit of C$15.47 billion (versus forecast C$14.4 billion deficit); bigger-than-expected 2.3% fall in Canada October raw materials price index (versus forecast 2.0% drop), although the industrial product price index fell less-than-expected 0.3% (versus forecast 0.5% drop). USD/CAD also supported by soft oil prices (Nymex crude was recently down five cents at $92.25/bbl on Globex, hovering not far above six-month lows). But USD/CAD upside limited by loonie demand on CAD/JPY cross amid weak yen sentiment; positions adjustment before weekend.

Technical Comment:
Daily chart still positive-biased as five- & 15-day moving averages advancing; MACD & stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought, and inside-day-range pattern completed Thursday;

Resistance at 1.0602-1.0608 band (Wednesday’s high-July 5 swing high); breach would target 1.0657 (Oct. 4, 2011 swing high), then 1.0677 (July 6, 2010 reaction high) and 1.0851 (May 25, 2010 high).
Support at 1.0565 (Thursday’s low); breach would expose downside to 1.0527 (Wednesday’s low), then 1.0517-1.0509 band (Tuesday’s low-Nov. 22 low), 1.0442-1.0432 band (Nov. 21 low-Nov. 20 low)

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GBPUSD: Analysis

GBP/USD–to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting near-11-month high 1.6357 Thursday. Sterling sentiment boosted after Bank of England said it would end mortgage lending in its Funding For Lending scheme in January 2014, although the scheme will continue to provide cheap funding for loans to businesses–BOE Gov. Carney said the U.K. housing market no longer needs the support of the FLS. ANZ Bank says, “The decision reverses in part some of the BOE’s unconventional monetary measures. In that regard, it is a tightening in monetary conditions and may be viewed by some as the precursor to a rise in interest rates.” GBP/USD also supported by sterling demand on GBP/JPY cross amid weak yen sentiment; sterling demand on soft EUR/GBP cross. But GBP/USD gains tempered by positions adjustment before weekend.

Data focus:
0005 GMT U.K. November consumer confidence survey,
0700 GMT November Nationwide house price index (forecast +0.7% on-month), 0930 GMT October BSA savings & mortgage lending.
TEchnical Comment:
Daily chart positive-biased as MACD bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought, five-day moving average above 15-day MA and advancing.

Resistance at 1.6357 (Thursday’s high); breach would target 1.6380 (Jan. 2 swing high), then 1.6455 (Aug. 29, 2011 high) and 1.6570 (Aug. 23, 2011 high).

Support at 1.6275 (Thursday’s low); breach would temper positive near-term view, exposing downside to 1.6195 (Wednesday’s low), then 1.6137-1.6131 band (Tuesday’s low-Monday’s low), 1.6070 (Nov. 21 low), 1.6057 (Nov. 19 low) and 1.6046 (Nov. 15 low).

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AUDUSD: Analysis

AUD/USD–to range-trade. Supported by surprise 3.6% rise in Australia’s third-quarter capital expenditure (versus forecast for 1.2% drop); residual month-end portfolio hedge adjustments; Aussie demand on AUD/JPY cross amid weak yen sentiment; Aussie demand on rebounding AUD/NZD cross; AUD-USD interest differential. But AUD/USD upside limited by Reserve Bank of Australia’s dovish monetary stance and rhetoric against Aussie strength; positions adjustment before weekend.

Data focus:
0030 GMT Australia October financial aggregates, private sector credit; 0530 GMT October international reserves.

Techncial Comment:
Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD & stochastics bearish, although latter at oversold; five- & 15-day moving averages declining.

Support at 0.9072 (Thursday’s low), then at 0.9061 (Wednesday’s low); breach would expose downside to 0.8921 (Sept. 2 low), then 0.8887 (Aug. 30 reaction low).

Resistance at 0.9149 (Thursday’s high); breach would expose upside to 0.9204 (Tuesday’s high), then 0.9249 (Nov. 22 high), 0.9334 (Nov. 21 high) and 0.9447 (Nov. 19 high).

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AUDUSD: Anlaysis

AUD/USD–to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting near-three-month low 0.9061 Wednesday. Undermined by positive dollar sentiment; weak commodity prices; jawboning on Aussie strength from Reserve Bank of Australia’s officials; Aussie sales on soft AUD/NZD cross. But AUD/USD losses tempered by month-end portfolio hedge adjustments; AUD-USD interest differential; Aussie demand on AUD/JPY cross amid improved risk appetite.

Data focus:
0030 GMT Australia 3Q private new capital expenditure & expected expenditure.
Technical Comment:
Daily chart negative-biased as MACD & stochastics bearish, although latter at oversold; five- & 15-day moving averages declining.

Support at 0.9061 (Wednesday’s low); breach would expose downside to 0.8921 (Sept. 2 low), then 0.8887 (Aug. 30 reaction low).

Resistance at 0.9137 (Wednesday’s high); breach would expose upside to 0.9204 (Tuesday’s high), then 0.9249 (Friday’s high), 0.9334 (Nov. 21 high) and 0.9447 (Nov. 19 high).

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GPUSD: Anlaysis

GBP/USD–to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting near-11-month high 1.6330 Wednesday. Sterling sentiment boosted after U.K. third-quarter GDP growth was confirmed at 0.8%. GBP/USD also supported by sterling demand on GBP/JPY cross amid diminished risk aversion; sterling demand on soft EUR/GBP cross. But GBP/USD upside limited by positive dollar sentiment.

Data focus:
1030 GMT Bank of England’s Financial Stability Report,
1100 GMT October Land Registry house price index.
Technical Comment:
Daily chart positive-biased as MACD bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought, five-day moving average above 15-day MA and advancing.

Resistance at 1.6330 (Wednesday’s high); breach would target 1.6380 (Jan. 2 swing high), then 1.6455 (Aug. 29, 2011 high) and 1.6570 (Aug. 23, 2011 high).

Support at 1.6256 (hourly chart), then at 1.6195 (Wednesday’s low); breach would expose downside to 1.6137-1.6131 band (Tuesday’s low-Monday’s low), then 1.6070 (Nov. 21 low), 1.6057 (Nov. 19 low), 1.6046 (Nov. 15 low) and 1.5986 (Nov. 14 low).

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USDCAD: Anlaysis

USD/CAD–to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting near-five-month high 1.0602 Wednesday. Underpinned by positive dollar sentiment; weak commodity & oil prices (Nymex crude settled $1.38 lower Wednesday at $92.30/bbl). But USD/CAD gains tempered by loonie demand on CAD/JPY cross amid positive investor risk sentiment.

Data focus:
1330 GMT Canada 3Q balance of payments, October industrial product & raw materials price indexes;
1900 GMT November Bank of Canada banking and financial statistics.

Daily chart positive-biased as MACD & stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought; five- & 15-day moving averages advancing.

Resistance at 1.0602-1.0608 band (Wednesday’s high-July 5 swing high); breach would target 1.0657 (Oct. 4, 2011 swing high), then 1.0677 (July 6, 2010 reaction high) and 1.0851 (May 25, 2010 high).

Support at 1.0527 (Wednesday’s low), then at 1.0517-1.0509 band (Tuesday’s low-Friday’s low); breach would expose downside to 1.0442-1.0432 band (Nov. 21 low-Nov. 20 low), then 1.0412 (Nov. 18 low), 1.0400-1.0394 band (Nov. 7 low-Nov. 4 low), 1.0390 (confluence of 55-day & 100-day moving averages) and 1.0363 (Oct. 24 low).

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EURJPY: Anlaysis

EUR/JPY–to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting four-year high 138.83 this morning. Underpinned by weak yen sentiment; positive investor risk appetite; demand from Japan importers. But EUR/JPY gains tempered by Japan exporter sales. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought, five-day moving average above 15-day MA and advancing.

Resistance at psychological 139.00; breach would target 139.21 (June 5, 2009 high), then psychological 140.00 and psychological 141.00 (matching 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 169.97-94.12 July 23, 2008-July 24, 2012 decline).

Support at 137.73 (hourly chart), then at 137.31 (Wednesday’s low) and 137.15 (Tuesday’s low); breach would target 137.04 (Monday’s low), then 136.02 (Friday’s low), 134.12 (Nov. 20 low) and 133.72 (Nov. 14 low).

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EURJPY:Analysis

EUR/JPY-to consolidate with risks skewed lower. Undermined by profit-taking on yen-shorts ahead of U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday; Japan exporter sales. But EUR/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers; soft yen sentiment amid expectations that the Bank of Japan will take additional easing measures to counter a consumption-tax rise next April. Daily chart still positive-biased as MACD bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought, five-day moving average above 15-day MA and advancing; although inside-day-range pattern completed Tuesday.

Support at 137.15 (Tuesday’s low), then at 137.04 (Monday’s low); breach would expose downside to 136.02 (Friday’s low), then 134.12 (Nov. 20 low), 133.72 (Nov. 14 low) and 133.25 (Nov. 13 low).

Resistance 137.68 (Tuesday’s high), then at 137.98-138.00 (Monday’s four-year high–psychological level); breach would expose upside to 138.51 (Oct. 26, 2009 high), then 138.70 (Aug. 7, 2009 high), psychological 139.00 and 139.21 (June 5, 2009 high).

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USDCAD:Analysis

USD/CAD–to trade with risks skewed lower. Undermined by weaker dollar sentiment. But USD/CAD downside limited by loonie sales on soft CAD/JPY cross; weak oil prices (Nymex crude settled 41 cents lower Tuesday at $93.68/bbl). Data focus: 1330 GMT Canada September payroll employment, earnings & hours. Daily chart still positive-biased as MACD & stochastics bullish; five-day moving average above 15-day MA and advancing; although inside-day-range pattern completed Tuesday.

Resistance at 1.0558 (Tuesday’s high), then at 1.0582 (Monday’s high); breach would target 1.0608 (July 5 swing high), then 1.0657 (Oct. 4, 2011 swing high).

Support at 1.0517-1.0509 band (Tuesday’s low-Friday’s low); breach would expose downside to 1.0442-1.0432 band (Thursday’s low-Nov. 20 low), then 1.0412 (Nov. 18 low), 1.0400-1.0394 band (Nov. 7 low-Nov. 4 low), 1.0386 (confluence of 55-day & 100-day moving averages) and 1.0363 (Oct. 24 low).

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