Lately we havent seen much of an action in GOLD so I havent done any update on it so far, its literary flat out these past days. Even NFP did not bring much of a action in GOLD. The question though pops in my head, whether FOMC can start moving it?
As we see there are no buyers so far, that is good for my sell setup, but I must remain cautious that FOMC can change everything. However if FOMC releases any comments about upcoming rate hike in December, it should boost dollar and GOLD might lose more ( the setup I am playing for).
However market is always tricky and you never know what can happen, at least I expect the FOMC hour to be choppy, 50 pips up, 50 down maybe, it might take a proper direction later on or might not do much at all and stay sidelines..
Notice how gold broke 1300 level yesterday – in a hurry. This means I take it as a sign for more upcoming weakness. So I took a short on this small correction higher to 1275 and I will look for a level at 1225 approximately. Of course with a caution for a potential break even after 200 pips move, but lets see how it closes US session, it will be crucial to see that small pin on daily chart, if it forms, but for that we need a close at 1260 or lower. Definitely you never know what will happen, especially with NFP around but gold tends to do corrections and this might be a bigger one before some renewed buying strength.
GOLD is really struggling, the thing I needed but since it was struggling in the way too slow manner, I got out of my short and took a long which is now in a floating minus. Looks like risk sentiment is up which means GOLD might resume its uptrend move with a big bang and that bang might be on CPI on Friday.
We have to wait though for the move to actually happen but will see, it seems dollar wont gain much at all and market just waiting to finalize its orders at the right moment.Patience for my order will be highly appreciated though.
Since my last order with a buy was closed with small loss, I took advantage of move and took a sell before it went lower on Friday. Now I am monitoring this setup, I am already break even and target is to 1280 level or so.
Definitely this setup looks good, it made a new lower high in the medium importance trend, however we must always keep in mind that in daily trend its still up since last December so we should be aware of that, however price action somehow points to some correction lower, possible, if no surprises then it might retrace somewhere lower before taking off to new highs later on. However caution on this setup of course, BREAK EVEN already so no loss on it, now just a wait and see and forget approach for this trade.
To be fair, this correction is good, unsure how deep it will go but a buy at 1344 is a good entry for me, SL about 1320 and take profit around 1400. Its a bit long term trade but the swap overnight is not the biggest one so it should be easy to keep it alive over some days, potentially a week or so.
But an update of the setup and its continuous move will follow, its important to spot if its not a real gold strength and just some intraday move that will go against, thats whats on my schedule next, determine that.
GOLD today rallied and yesterdays analysis is completely void now as GOLD turns back to bullish scenario. Its impressive to see such a huge move and what I want to do is look for a buy at 1342-45 level because that was a resistance, can be a good support now for a continuous move.
Dollar was punished hard because we had a huge miss on ISM manufacturing PMI and that literary destroyed any hopes market had about some rate hike soon. Now I believe next weeks FOMC will be flat out even, some movement here and there but believe me, its that time of the year when dollar will be hit once more, do not sit sidelines, ride that risk which means buy that gold whenever you can
Notice the pattern in the GOLD that is developing. I like the idea that its choppy around that lower high because if its not rising, it will be falling. I will play this setup with a potential take profit around 1300 because if it indeed goes lower, the new low will be made before something different happens. SL around 1333.
I set a SL just below BREAK even on Friday before NFP just to avoid any big losses in case things go wrong. So I did indeed the right thing because it went down just before the release and then BOOM, BE triggered and it closed much much higher. Despite the fact that dollar gained across the board, the funny thing is that GOLD still closed higher.
So for now I will believe that 1302 will be the low set for some time and my bias will turn bullish next week. NFP was worse than expected so dollar might lose on Monday and the rest of the week and that will surely boost GOLD
Stay tuned for more updates, next week will be definitely more volatile than last one because everyone will come back from their vacations and will start to trade, so volume will surely increase!